Founder connections
- Edward O. ThorpRecommendedUCI Libraries records Thorp’s recommendation from its July 29, 2019 interview. He discusses checking the accuracy of expert forecasts. The linked paperback is a registry edition; his exact edition is unknown.Source
Summary
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner examine people who make unusually accurate forecasts. Drawing on the Good Judgment Project, they describe how these forecasters break questions into parts, compare evidence and change their estimates when new facts appear.
The book treats forecasting as a skill that can improve through practice and feedback. It places more weight on clear questions, measured results and careful updates than on a confident public reputation.
Why read it Our view
Use it when a team makes a forecast that can later be checked. Define the event and date, record a probability, and compare the result with the estimate. The useful habit is to update an uncertain view when evidence changes, then study the errors rather than defend the first answer.