Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke's book on decision-making under uncertainty, drawing on her experience as a professional poker player. Duke argues that the quality of a decision should be judged by the process, not the outcome, and how to think about risk, uncertainty, and the role of luck.

For founders, Thinking in Bets is a framework for making high-stakes decisions without information. It's about separating the quality of the decision from the quality of the outcome — a distinction founders must master.